Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 51.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$2.5K
$48.65
62.4¢ → 93.5¢
+50% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 62¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$214.13 | 70% 1655-702 (2357) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 63.1¢ | $387.71 | $436.44 | +$48.74 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 39¢ | $291.72 | $149.64 | -$56.24 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PR primmCTR | Overavg 37¢ | $304.14 | $143.85 | -$160.29 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 70.5¢ | $35.25 | $35.5 | +$0.25 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $20.65 | $23.28 | +$2.62 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $20.98 | $20.43 | -$0.55 | 28% 305-773 (1078) |
Invested
$1,475.11
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$214.13
Record
70%
1655-702 (2357)
Invested
$387.71
Value
$436.44
PnL
+$48.74
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$291.72
Value
$149.64
PnL
-$56.24
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$304.14
Value
$143.85
PnL
-$160.29
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
RN1<$100Invested
$35.25
Value
$35.5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$23.28
PnL
+$2.62
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.43
PnL
-$0.55
Record
28%
305-773 (1078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.