Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 47.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.2K
$23.92
48.4¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $400.82 | $409 | +$8.18 | 47% 500-558 (1058) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $324.29 | $338.09 | +$13.8 | 26% 229-666 (895) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $320.55 | $320.99 | +$0.44 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $85 | $85.85 | +$0.85 | 52% 126-116 (242) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $13.62 | $14.04 | +$0.42 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $8.93 | $8.85 | -$0.08 | 38% 209-341 (550) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $6.44 | $6.76 | +$0.32 | 48% 927-1003 (1930) |
Invested
$400.82
Value
$409
PnL
+$8.18
Record
47%
500-558 (1058)
Invested
$324.29
Value
$338.09
PnL
+$13.8
Record
26%
229-666 (895)
Invested
$320.55
Value
$320.99
PnL
+$0.44
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$85
Value
$85.85
PnL
+$0.85
Record
52%
126-116 (242)
Invested
$13.62
Value
$14.04
PnL
+$0.42
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$8.85
PnL
-$0.08
Record
38%
209-341 (550)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$0.32
Record
48%
927-1003 (1930)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.