Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio, while the market favors Miami (OH) (100%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Miami (OH) (-1.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (33%) · Ohio at 0.4¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Miami (OH)>99¢Ohio<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 33%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$188.37

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (OH)100%

Ohio0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,782

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Ohio4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,664

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Miami (OH) — 67%Ohio — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
betdge	Miami (OH)avg 41¢	$1.0K	$2.5K	+$1.5K	49% 27-28 (55)
65 6512395314597884	Miami (OH)avg 44.8¢	$896.44	$2.0K	+$1.1K	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
RN1CTR	Ohioavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$186.61	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
CUTJALENHURTS	Miami (OH)avg 41¢	$340.3	$826.68	+$486.38	52% 2583-2418 (5001)
HO HomeRunHazard	Miami (OH)avg 45.6¢	$97.25	$209.22	+$111.97	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
PA Pan9X	Miami (OH)avg 55.4¢	$98.9	$126.07	+$27.17	49% 498-518 (1016)
LI LightParadox<$100	Miami (OH)avg 45¢	$34.11	$74.27	+$40.17	29% 315-788 (1103)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (OH)avg 45.5¢	$12.23	$26.34	+$14.11	54% 445-377 (822)
PR primmCTR	Ohioavg 53.6¢	$3.3K	$24.3	$-3.2K	61% 859-554 (1413)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Ohioavg 89¢	$18.07	$6.83	-$11.24	55% 541-436 (977)
38 38791873984189<$100	Miami (OH)avg 64.6¢	$6.8	$6.39	-$0.42	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Ohioavg 53¢	$2.65	$0.02	-$2.63	58% 3133-2226 (5359)

betdge

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,025

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

6512395314597884

Miami (OH)

Invested

$896.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

RN1CTR

Ohio

Invested

$1,776.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$186.61

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

CUTJALENHURTS

Miami (OH)

Invested

$340.3

Value

$826.68

PnL

+$486.38

Record

52%

2583-2418 (5001)

HomeRunHazard

Miami (OH)

Invested

$97.25

Value

$209.22

PnL

+$111.97

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

Pan9X

Miami (OH)

Invested

$98.9

Value

$126.07

PnL

+$27.17

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

LightParadox<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$34.11

Value

$74.27

PnL

+$40.17

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$12.23

Value

$26.34

PnL

+$14.11

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

primmCTR

Ohio

Invested

$3,255.14

Value

$24.3

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

61%

859-554 (1413)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$18.07

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$11.24

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

38791873984189<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$0.42

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$2.65

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.63

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.