Spread: Miami (OH) (-10.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (33%) · Ohio at 98¢ · $316 held · ended Nov 11

Miami (OH)2¢Ohio98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 33%

Total Value

$316.25

Combined PnL

-$179.74

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 97.6¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (OH)2%

Ohio98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio2 traders

Total Value$311.16

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$110.18

Miami (OH)4 traders

Total Value$5.09

Total Shares384

Combined PnL-$69.56

Ohio — 33%Miami (OH) — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Ohioavg 80¢	$415.6	$304.26	-$111.34	48% 959-1032 (1991)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Ohioavg 82¢	$5.74	$6.9	+$1.15	56% 502-393 (895)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 20¢	$71.96	$4.68	-$67.28	29% 307-748 (1055)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 18¢	$1.26	$0.17	-$1.09	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 1.3¢	$0.13	$0.15	+$0.02	49% 446-472 (918)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 18¢	$1.3	$0.09	-$1.21	55% 399-332 (731)

38791873984189

Ohio

Invested

$415.6

Value

$304.26

PnL

-$111.34

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Ohio

Invested

$5.74

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$1.15

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$71.96

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$67.28

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$1.09

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.21

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

NeutralOhio at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.