Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (70%) · Ohio State at 58¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Ohio State58¢Northwestern42¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 70%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$922.43

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 58¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State58%

Northwestern42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares10,853

Combined PnL+$755.18

Northwestern3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,763

Combined PnL+$167.25

Ohio State — 70%Northwestern — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ohio Stateavg 58.8¢	$4.3K	$4.8K	+$490.52	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 41.4¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$160.95	59% 931-653 (1584)
65 6512395314597884	Ohio Stateavg 57.4¢	$850.04	$962.89	+$112.85	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189	Ohio Stateavg 61.1¢	$824.97	$650.81	+$50.22	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio Stateavg 53.7¢	$288.53	$351.97	+$63.43	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Ohio Stateavg 56.8¢	$210.59	$239.3	+$28.71	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Northwesternavg 42.3¢	$147.53	$151.83	+$4.3	47% 99-111 (210)
PA Pan9X	Ohio Stateavg 60.1¢	$101.07	$110.22	+$9.15	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 40¢	$40	$42	+$2	19% 18-76 (94)
NO NotJump<$100	Ohio Stateavg 64¢	$12.8	$13.1	+$0.3	52% 833-779 (1612)

RN1

Ohio State

Invested

$4,280.56

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$490.52

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$4,274.18

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$160.95

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

6512395314597884

Ohio State

Invested

$850.04

Value

$962.89

PnL

+$112.85

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189

Ohio State

Invested

$824.97

Value

$650.81

PnL

+$50.22

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State

Invested

$288.53

Value

$351.97

PnL

+$63.43

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Ohio State

Invested

$210.59

Value

$239.3

PnL

+$28.71

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$147.53

Value

$151.83

PnL

+$4.3

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Pan9X

Ohio State

Invested

$101.07

Value

$110.22

PnL

+$9.15

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$40

Value

$42

PnL

+$2

Record

19%

18-76 (94)

NotJump<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 58%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.