Spread: Ohio State (-7.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (67%) · Ohio State at 81¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Ohio State81¢Northwestern19¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 67%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$653.13

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 81¢

+45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State81%

Northwestern19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,492

Combined PnL+$918.33

Northwestern3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,206

Combined PnL-$265.21

Ohio State — 67%Northwestern — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ohio Stateavg 55.8¢	$3.0K	$4.0K	+$1.0K	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 40¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$256.49	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189	Ohio Stateavg 51.9¢	$470.04	$461.55	-$8.49	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
65 6512395314597884	Ohio Stateavg 60¢	$480	$376	-$104	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9X	Ohio Stateavg 56.3¢	$108.45	$98.32	-$10.13	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Ohio Stateavg 56.9¢	$79.48	$90.08	+$10.6	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NO NotJump<$100	Ohio Stateavg 50.2¢	$45.2	$45.9	+$0.7	51% 850-801 (1651)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 40.7¢	$54.99	$45.28	-$9.71	47% 99-111 (210)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 36¢	$36	$37	+$1	19% 18-76 (94)

RN1

Ohio State

Invested

$2,994.1

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,586.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$256.49

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189

Ohio State

Invested

$470.04

Value

$461.55

PnL

-$8.49

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

6512395314597884

Ohio State

Invested

$480

Value

$376

PnL

-$104

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9X

Ohio State

Invested

$108.45

Value

$98.32

PnL

-$10.13

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$79.48

Value

$90.08

PnL

+$10.6

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NotJump<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$45.2

Value

$45.9

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$54.99

Value

$45.28

PnL

-$9.71

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$36

Value

$37

PnL

+$1

Record

19%

18-76 (94)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.