Spread: Ohio State (-6.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (73%) · Ohio State at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Ohio State70¢Northwestern30¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 73%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$32.61

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 69.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State70%

Northwestern31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,896

Combined PnL+$484.87

Northwestern3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,908

Combined PnL-$517.48

Ohio State — 73%Northwestern — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ohio Stateavg 64.1¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$335.82	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 35.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$501.68	59% 931-653 (1584)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio Stateavg 63.5¢	$352.61	$413.67	+$61.07	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
65 6512395314597884	Ohio Stateavg 64.6¢	$265.38	$305.96	+$40.59	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189	Ohio Stateavg 68.9¢	$366.66	$267.25	+$26.23	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
PA Pan9X	Ohio Stateavg 66.1¢	$145.21	$163.57	+$18.36	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 30.6¢	$54.9	$57.49	+$2.59	19% 18-76 (94)
PU purplegatto<$100	Ohio Stateavg 70¢	$55.76	$54.97	-$0.8	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 36.5¢	$56.02	$37.62	-$18.4	47% 99-111 (210)
NO NotJump<$100	Ohio Stateavg 66.5¢	$26.6	$29.8	+$3.2	52% 833-779 (1612)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ohio Stateavg 69¢	$9.78	$10.18	+$0.4	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

RN1

Ohio State

Invested

$2,066.06

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$335.82

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,622.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$501.68

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State

Invested

$352.61

Value

$413.67

PnL

+$61.07

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

6512395314597884

Ohio State

Invested

$265.38

Value

$305.96

PnL

+$40.59

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189

Ohio State

Invested

$366.66

Value

$267.25

PnL

+$26.23

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Pan9X

Ohio State

Invested

$145.21

Value

$163.57

PnL

+$18.36

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$54.9

Value

$57.49

PnL

+$2.59

Record

19%

18-76 (94)

purplegatto<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$55.76

Value

$54.97

PnL

-$0.8

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$56.02

Value

$37.62

PnL

-$18.4

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

NotJump<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$26.6

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$3.2

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

ghorrock<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$9.78

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.