Spread: Ohio State (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (67%) · Ohio State at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Ohio State85¢Northwestern15¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$419.45

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 84.5¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State85%

Northwestern16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,117

Combined PnL-$212.57

Northwestern3 traders

Total Value$774.15

Total Shares2,866

Combined PnL-$206.88

Ohio State — 67%Northwestern — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ohio Stateavg 65.5¢	$1.0K	$853.47	-$172.08	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 34.4¢	$931.8	$731.7	-$200.1	59% 931-653 (1584)
65 6512395314597884	Ohio Stateavg 65.7¢	$453.96	$486.99	+$33.03	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio Stateavg 66¢	$330	$272.5	-$57.5	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
38 38791873984189	Ohio Stateavg 68¢	$144.51	$142.38	-$2.13	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ohio Stateavg 64.8¢	$85.84	$72.16	-$13.68	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 34.6¢	$32.17	$25.07	-$7.1	47% 99-111 (210)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 27¢	$17.06	$17.37	+$0.32	51% 850-801 (1651)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ohio Stateavg 68.5¢	$10.22	$10	-$0.22	53% 1811-1610 (3421)

RN1

Ohio State

Invested

$1,025.55

Value

$853.47

PnL

-$172.08

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$931.8

Value

$731.7

PnL

-$200.1

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

6512395314597884

Ohio State

Invested

$453.96

Value

$486.99

PnL

+$33.03

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State

Invested

$330

Value

$272.5

PnL

-$57.5

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

38791873984189

Ohio State

Invested

$144.51

Value

$142.38

PnL

-$2.13

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Pan9X<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$85.84

Value

$72.16

PnL

-$13.68

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$32.17

Value

$25.07

PnL

-$7.1

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$17.06

Value

$17.37

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

ghorrock<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.