Spread: Ohio State (-11.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (64%) · Ohio State at 52¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Ohio State52¢Northwestern48¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 64%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 52¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State52%

Northwestern48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northwestern4 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares16,989

Combined PnL-$457.19

Ohio State7 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares16,343

Combined PnL-$581.38

Northwestern — 36%Ohio State — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+44 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 45.5¢	$7.2K	$6.6K	-$628.55	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazard	Ohio Stateavg 56¢	$6.1K	$5.6K	-$546.13	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
RN1	Ohio Stateavg 53.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$81.01	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Ohio Stateavg 58¢	$464	$496	+$32	25% 346-1024 (1370)
65 6512395314597884	Ohio Stateavg 50.1¢	$325.75	$331.75	+$6	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northwesternavg 42.7¢	$2.0K	$315.29	+$170.09	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Northwesternavg 46.4¢	$247.98	$251.21	+$3.23	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Ohio Stateavg 58¢	$240.7	$242.77	+$2.07	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio Stateavg 53.2¢	$113.19	$108.42	-$4.78	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 48¢	$37.68	$35.72	-$1.96	43% 182-242 (424)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ohio Stateavg 48.2¢	$77.67	$23.71	+$10.47	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$7,205.25

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$628.55

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazard

Ohio State

Invested

$6,132.21

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$546.13

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

RN1

Ohio State

Invested

$1,751.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$81.01

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Ohio State

Invested

$464

Value

$496

PnL

+$32

Record

25%

346-1024 (1370)

6512395314597884

Ohio State

Invested

$325.75

Value

$331.75

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$2,023.7

Value

$315.29

PnL

+$170.09

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$247.98

Value

$251.21

PnL

+$3.23

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Ohio State

Invested

$240.7

Value

$242.77

PnL

+$2.07

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State

Invested

$113.19

Value

$108.42

PnL

-$4.78

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$37.68

Value

$35.72

PnL

-$1.96

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

Pan9X<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$77.67

Value

$23.71

PnL

+$10.47

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+44 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.