Spread: Ohio State (-10.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (73%) · Ohio State at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Ohio State59¢Northwestern41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 73%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$136.64

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 59¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State59%

Northwestern41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,910

Combined PnL+$312.24

Northwestern3 traders

Total Value$847.63

Total Shares2,201

Combined PnL-$175.61

Ohio State — 73%Northwestern — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ohio Stateavg 53.5¢	$846.5	$941.89	+$95.38	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 46.5¢	$939.15	$767.6	-$171.55	59% 931-653 (1584)
65 6512395314597884	Ohio Stateavg 50.6¢	$313.23	$368.44	+$55.21	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
VeryLucky888	Ohio Stateavg 49¢	$303.57	$315.97	+$12.39	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio Stateavg 44¢	$220	$297.5	+$77.5	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Ohio Stateavg 44.9¢	$114.08	$151.11	+$37.03	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
PA Pan9X	Ohio Stateavg 46.3¢	$100.55	$129.11	+$28.56	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 46¢	$51.52	$54.14	+$2.62	48% 912-1002 (1914)
38 38791873984189<$100	Ohio Stateavg 51.8¢	$42.22	$48.48	+$6.26	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 47.2¢	$32.57	$25.89	-$6.68	47% 99-111 (210)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ohio Stateavg 51.3¢	$18.56	$18.46	-$0.11	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

RN1

Ohio State

Invested

$846.5

Value

$941.89

PnL

+$95.38

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$939.15

Value

$767.6

PnL

-$171.55

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

6512395314597884

Ohio State

Invested

$313.23

Value

$368.44

PnL

+$55.21

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

VeryLucky888

Ohio State

Invested

$303.57

Value

$315.97

PnL

+$12.39

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State

Invested

$220

Value

$297.5

PnL

+$77.5

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Ohio State

Invested

$114.08

Value

$151.11

PnL

+$37.03

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Pan9X

Ohio State

Invested

$100.55

Value

$129.11

PnL

+$28.56

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$51.52

Value

$54.14

PnL

+$2.62

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

38791873984189<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$42.22

Value

$48.48

PnL

+$6.26

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$32.57

Value

$25.89

PnL

-$6.68

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ghorrock<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$18.56

Value

$18.46

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthwestern 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOhio State 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.