Northwestern vs. Ohio State

1 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (8%) · Ohio State at 84¢ · $364K held · ends Nov 14

Northwestern17¢Ohio State83¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 8%

Total Value

$363.5K

Combined PnL

-$125.63

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

1 of 12 top traders (8%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Northwestern17%

Ohio State84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State1 trader

Total Value$304.0K

Total Shares364,035

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Northwestern11 traders

Total Value$59.6K

Total Shares360,944

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Ohio State — 8%Northwestern — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Ohio Stateavg 84¢	$305.8K	$304.0K	$-1.8K	82% 106-23 (129)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Northwesternavg 16¢	$52.9K	$54.5K	+$1.7K	51% 3849-3640 (7489)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Northwesternavg 16¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$38.46	52% 2626-2464 (5090)
VeryLucky888CTR	Northwesternavg 16¢	$1.6K	$930.01	-$22.31	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Northwesternavg 16¢	$909.31	$890.01	-$19.3	57% 3601-2755 (6356)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northwesternavg 16¢	$815.68	$790.19	-$25.49	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
HI hi774cCTR	Northwesternavg 16.1¢	$512.35	$558.01	+$45.66	22% 163-589 (752)
SE sentrioCTR	Northwesternavg 16¢	$467.97	$482.59	+$14.62	43% 949-1283 (2232)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 16¢	$85.44	$88.11	+$2.67	48% 269-290 (559)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 16¢	$20.16	$20.79	+$0.63	55% 256-211 (467)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 16¢	$8	$8.25	+$0.25	39% 1085-1663 (2748)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 16¢	$6.5	$6.3	-$0.2	52% 1608-1475 (3083)

999585

Ohio State

Invested

$305,782.38

Value

$304.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

82%

106-23 (129)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$52,884.6

Value

$54.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

51%

3849-3640 (7489)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,230.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$38.46

Record

52%

2626-2464 (5090)

VeryLucky888CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,590.57

Value

$930.01

PnL

-$22.31

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$909.31

Value

$890.01

PnL

-$19.3

Record

57%

3601-2755 (6356)

38791873984189CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$815.68

Value

$790.19

PnL

-$25.49

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

hi774cCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$512.35

Value

$558.01

PnL

+$45.66

Record

22%

163-589 (752)

sentrioCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$467.97

Value

$482.59

PnL

+$14.62

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$85.44

Value

$88.11

PnL

+$2.67

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$20.16

Value

$20.79

PnL

+$0.63

Record

55%

256-211 (467)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

1085-1663 (2748)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

1 of 12 top traders (8%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.