North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 61.5

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 95¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 95¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 15 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares10,197

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over11 traders

Total Value$426.63

Total Shares5,528

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 64.2¢	$6.0K	$8.7K	+$2.8K	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 38.3¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$86.02	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$152.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.1¢	$524.72	$591.47	+$66.75
VI vibing123	Underavg 69.9¢	$536.72	$717.71	+$180.99	62% 1165-716 (1881)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 57¢	$198	$200	+$2	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$114	$118	+$4
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$84	$82	-$2
GA gagarin59CTR	Overavg 31¢	$515.84	$99.84	-$416	43% 80-108 (188)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$445.49	$97.59	-$333.02	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Overavg 31¢	$465.62	$90.12	-$375.5	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 21.9¢	$17.97	$47.51	+$29.54	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 43¢	$127.79	$40.08	-$68.1	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
dips.CTR	Overavg 31¢	$154.38	$29.88	-$124.5	48% 1176-1281 (2457)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 70¢	$35	$29.5	-$5.5	51% 1007-981 (1988)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$92.07	$17.82	-$74.25	46% 811-960 (1771)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$15.49	$17.38	+$1.89	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$17.28	$15.12	-$2.16	40% 658-980 (1638)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 30.8¢	$61.71	$12.04	-$49.67	42% 394-540 (934)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$22.77	$4.41	-$18.36	60% 1459-957 (2416)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	65% 701-385 (1086)

primm

Under

Invested

$5,971.61

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,052.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$86.02

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

Both legs:

Over$1,527.638.3¢-$152.77

Under$524.7258.1¢+$66.75

vibing123

Under

Invested

$536.72

Value

$717.71

PnL

+$180.99

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$198

Value

$200

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

Both legs:

Invested

$515.84

Value

$99.84

PnL

-$416

Record

43%

80-108 (188)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$445.49

Value

$97.59

PnL

-$333.02

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Over

Invested

$465.62

Value

$90.12

PnL

-$375.5

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$17.97

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$29.54

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$127.79

Value

$40.08

PnL

-$68.1

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$154.38

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$124.5

Record

48%

1176-1281 (2457)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.07

Value

$17.82

PnL

-$74.25

Record

46%

811-960 (1771)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.49

Value

$17.38

PnL

+$1.89

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.28

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$2.16

Record

40%

658-980 (1638)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.71

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$49.67

Record

42%

394-540 (934)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.77

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$18.36

Record

60%

1459-957 (2416)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

701-385 (1086)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 15 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.