North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 55.5

2 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 78¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$917.01

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 77.5¢

+39% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares14,789

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Over13 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares13,890

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 54.9¢	$7.2K	$10.6K	+$3.4K	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.2K	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
VI vibing123	Underavg 62.6¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$320.91	62% 1165-716 (1881)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$417.36	-$665.09	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 41.7¢	$630.02	$378.35	-$251.66	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
GA gagarin59CTR	Overavg 40¢	$488.72	$232.14	-$256.58	43% 80-108 (188)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45.8¢	$203.27	$188.73	-$14.54	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 43.3¢	$741.75	$175.09	-$169.44	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 42.8¢	$190.71	$171.66	-$19.06	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
SM smithagentCTR	Overavg 48¢	$145.87	$56.24	-$89.63	46% 811-960 (1771)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 38.5¢	$73.88	$47.05	-$26.83	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
dips.CTR	Overavg 48¢	$114.72	$45.41	-$69.31	48% 1176-1281 (2457)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$93.5	$36.04	-$57.46	42% 394-540 (934)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$29.12	$27.69	-$1.43	51% 1007-981 (1988)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.52	$2.41	-$0.11	40% 658-980 (1638)

primm

Under

Invested

$7,159.56

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,759.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$1,093.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$320.91

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Over

Invested

$1,082.45

Value

$417.36

PnL

-$665.09

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$630.02

Value

$378.35

PnL

-$251.66

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

gagarin59CTR

Over

Invested

$488.72

Value

$232.14

PnL

-$256.58

Record

43%

80-108 (188)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$203.27

Value

$188.73

PnL

-$14.54

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$741.75

Value

$175.09

PnL

-$169.44

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$190.71

Value

$171.66

PnL

-$19.06

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

smithagentCTR

Over

Invested

$145.87

Value

$56.24

PnL

-$89.63

Record

46%

811-960 (1771)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.88

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$26.83

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$114.72

Value

$45.41

PnL

-$69.31

Record

48%

1176-1281 (2457)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.5

Value

$36.04

PnL

-$57.46

Record

42%

394-540 (934)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.12

Value

$27.69

PnL

-$1.43

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.11

Record

40%

658-980 (1638)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.