Spread: UTSA (-13.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (80%) · North Texas at 72¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

UTSA28¢North Texas72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 80%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$263.7

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 72¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UTSA28%

North Texas72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTSA2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares10,746

Combined PnL-$234.67

North Texas8 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares11,141

Combined PnL+$498.37

UTSA — 20%North Texas — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	UTSAavg 37.7¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$233.42	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1	North Texasavg 63¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$47.84	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
65 6512395314597884	North Texasavg 60.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$50.33	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	North Texasavg 63¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$140.17	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
dips.	North Texasavg 63¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$135.54	48% 1176-1281 (2457)
GA gagarin59	North Texasavg 63¢	$507.52	$567.94	+$60.42	43% 80-108 (188)
38 38791873984189	North Texasavg 63.2¢	$508.74	$551.21	+$42.46	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	North Texasavg 62.2¢	$85.07	$90.2	+$5.14	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Texasavg 56.6¢	$67.11	$83.57	+$16.46	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	UTSAavg 38¢	$19	$17.75	-$1.25	51% 1007-981 (1988)

primmCTR

UTSA

Invested

$4,030.63

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$233.42

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1

North Texas

Invested

$1,958.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$47.84

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

6512395314597884

North Texas

Invested

$1,512.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$50.33

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

North Texas

Invested

$1,169.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$140.17

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

dips.

North Texas

Invested

$1,138.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$135.54

Record

48%

1176-1281 (2457)

gagarin59

North Texas

Invested

$507.52

Value

$567.94

PnL

+$60.42

Record

43%

80-108 (188)

38791873984189

North Texas

Invested

$508.74

Value

$551.21

PnL

+$42.46

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

topdogbigboi<$100

North Texas

Invested

$85.07

Value

$90.2

PnL

+$5.14

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

Pan9X<$100

North Texas

Invested

$67.11

Value

$83.57

PnL

+$16.46

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

NotJumpCTR<$100

UTSA

Invested

$19

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.