Nevada vs. UCLA
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (50%) · UCLA at 97¢ · $146 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
UCLA
4
UCLA 50%
$146.3
$-2.9K
96.4¢ → 96.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCLA at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | UCLAavg 96.5¢ | $124.07 | $124.07 | +$0 | 52% 13853-12630 (26483) |
0X 0xfacfa554306c067bc5fd3be22390846e75bd2940CTR<$100 | Nevada | $17.39 | $17.39 | $-2.9K | 35% 13-24 (37) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | UCLAavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.83 | +$0.08 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Nevadaavg 2.5¢ | $0.13 | $0.02 | -$0.11 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
Invested
$124.07
Value
$124.07
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
13853-12630 (26483)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$17.39
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
35%
13-24 (37)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.08
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.11
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.