Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Northern Illinois, while the market favors Nevada (72%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nevada (-20.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Northern Illinois (60%) · Northern Illinois at 28¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Nevada72¢Northern Illinois28¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Northern Illinois

Consensus Traders

Northern Illinois 60%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$25.81

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 28.5¢

-64% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorthern Illinois at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Northern Illinois

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nevada 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nevada72%

Northern Illinois28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nevada4 traders

Total Value$597.82

Total Shares1,056

Combined PnL+$369.47

Northern Illinois6 traders

Total Value$440.8

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL-$343.66

Nevada — 40%Northern Illinois — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Northern Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNevada 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Northern Illinois 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Nevadaavg 18¢	$84.24	$320.58	+$236.34	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northern Illinoisavg 78.4¢	$523.76	$233.8	-$289.96	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
65 6512395314597884	Nevadaavg 29.8¢	$96.85	$182	+$85.15	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 82¢	$92.23	$92.23	-$0	9% 15-151 (166)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 82¢	$73.8	$65.7	-$8.1	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
LI LightParadox<$100	Nevadaavg 18¢	$17.1	$65.08	+$47.98	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
VE Venusian<$100	Nevadaavg 18¢	$30.16	$30.16	+$0	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
dips.CTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 72¢	$43.2	$20.4	-$22.8	47% 1014-1141 (2155)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 72¢	$43.2	$20.4	-$22.8	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 82¢	$8.27	$8.27	+$0	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

Limousin

Nevada

Invested

$84.24

Value

$320.58

PnL

+$236.34

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

38791873984189CTR

Northern Illinois

Invested

$523.76

Value

$233.8

PnL

-$289.96

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

6512395314597884

Nevada

Invested

$96.85

Value

$182

PnL

+$85.15

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$92.23

Value

$92.23

PnL

-$0

Record

15-151 (166)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$73.8

Value

$65.7

PnL

-$8.1

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

LightParadox<$100

Nevada

Invested

$17.1

Value

$65.08

PnL

+$47.98

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

Venusian<$100

Nevada

Invested

$30.16

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

dips.CTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$43.2

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$22.8

Record

47%

1014-1141 (2155)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$43.2

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$22.8

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidNorthern Illinois at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Northern Illinois

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nevada 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Northern Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNevada 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Northern Illinois 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Northern Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.