Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 45.5

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (35%) · Under at 82¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 14

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 35%

Total Value

$35.4K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 81.5¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares33,661

Combined PnL+$6.4K

Over11 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares33,895

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Under — 35%Over — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 60.5¢	$14.2K	$18.7K	+$4.5K	59% 931-653 (1584)
VI vibing123	Underavg 64.4¢	$3.7K	$4.8K	+$1.1K	62% 1138-702 (1840)
RN1CTR	Overavg 40.7¢	$6.9K	$4.2K	$-2.8K	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
unknowngambler	Underavg 67.6¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$341.74	— 3-3 (6)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 40.5¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$724.39	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 37.1¢	$1.1K	$964.71	-$170.14	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 57.9¢	$629.3	$863.37	+$234.07	47% 540-597 (1137)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 34.1¢	$974.63	$700.11	-$274.52	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 53¢	$267.69	$421.74	+$154.05	46% 497-591 (1088)
GA gagarin59CTR	Overavg 24¢	$520.75	$401.41	-$119.34	42% 64-89 (153)
AM AmericaFirst1	Underavg 56¢	$293.22	$395.05	+$101.83	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 38.5¢	$1.1K	$377.62	-$491.49	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 41.3¢	$342.46	$136.53	-$196.93	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 27¢	$94.5	$105	+$10.5	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 37.9¢	$75.1	$72.31	-$2.79	46% 294-351 (645)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$44.48	$34.5	-$8.1	52% 833-779 (1612)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$5.56	$5.56	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

primm

Under

Invested

$14,241.52

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$3,670.82

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$6,940.49

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

unknowngambler

Under

Invested

$1,555.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$341.74

Record

—

3-3 (6)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$2,099.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$724.39

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,134.85

Value

$964.71

PnL

-$170.14

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$629.3

Value

$863.37

PnL

+$234.07

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$974.63

Value

$700.11

PnL

-$274.52

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$267.69

Value

$421.74

PnL

+$154.05

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

gagarin59CTR

Over

Invested

$520.75

Value

$401.41

PnL

-$119.34

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

AmericaFirst1

Under

Invested

$293.22

Value

$395.05

PnL

+$101.83

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,072.12

Value

$377.62

PnL

-$491.49

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$342.46

Value

$136.53

PnL

-$196.93

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$94.5

Value

$105

PnL

+$10.5

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.1

Value

$72.31

PnL

-$2.79

Record

46%

294-351 (645)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.48

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$8.1

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.