Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 39.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 40¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$535.01

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 39.5¢

-29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,627

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,075

Combined PnL-$541.61

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 44.4¢	$3.4K	$4.3K	+$929.06	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	Overavg 54.3¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$265.99	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 61.1¢	$780.71	$728.73	-$51.97	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 56.7¢	$975.91	$623.16	-$127.75	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 35¢	$286.65	$409.5	+$122.85	47% 540-597 (1137)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 50.4¢	$296.07	$296.54	+$0.47	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 50¢	$204.08	$161.22	-$42.86	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 59.3¢	$229.01	$137.77	-$38.89	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Underavg 38.8¢	$46.4	$71.11	+$24.71	47% 99-111 (210)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 61.4¢	$82.26	$67.64	-$14.62	37% 1039-1757 (2796)

primm

Under

Invested

$3,414.67

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$929.06

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,161.49

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$265.99

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$780.71

Value

$728.73

PnL

-$51.97

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$975.91

Value

$623.16

PnL

-$127.75

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$286.65

Value

$409.5

PnL

+$122.85

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$296.07

Value

$296.54

PnL

+$0.47

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$204.08

Value

$161.22

PnL

-$42.86

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$229.01

Value

$137.77

PnL

-$38.89

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Under

Invested

$46.4

Value

$71.11

PnL

+$24.71

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.26

Value

$67.64

PnL

-$14.62

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.