Spread: Nebraska (-14.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nebraska (63%) · Nebraska at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Nebraska77¢Rutgers23¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nebraska

Consensus Traders

Nebraska 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$258.37

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 76.5¢

+42% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska77%

Rutgers24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nebraska5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,893

Combined PnL+$400.9

Rutgers3 traders

Total Value$189.56

Total Shares789

Combined PnL-$142.52

Nebraska — 63%Rutgers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rutgers) and the top 1000 (8 on Nebraska) disagree here.

ctrNebraska 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRutgers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nebraska 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Nebraskaavg 53.9¢	$937.68	$1.3K	+$394.18	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1ARB<$100	Rutgersavg 48¢	$470.1	$420.22	-$49.88	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Rutgers leg	Rutgersavg 48¢	$374.4	$323.7	-$50.7
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 58¢	$95.7	$96.52	+$0.82
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nebraskaavg 57.7¢	$611.36	$333.87	-$4.06	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 57.7¢	$257.72	$257.03	-$22.06
└ Rutgers leg	Rutgersavg 41.9¢	$75.8	$76.84	+$17.99
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rutgersavg 46.2¢	$323.95	$285.76	-$38.19	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ Rutgers leg	Rutgersavg 46.2¢	$201.35	$146.11	-$55.24
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 58.4¢	$122.6	$139.65	+$17.05
CM cm2897CTR	Rutgersavg 42¢	$324.66	$181.66	-$143.01	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Nebraskaavg 57.9¢	$94.21	$47.93	-$2.15	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
└ Nebraska leg	Nebraskaavg 57.9¢	$24.23	$24.26	-$3.13
└ Rutgers leg	Rutgersavg 42.9¢	$24.17	$23.67	+$0.98
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Nebraskaavg 53.6¢	$28.12	$34.39	+$6.27	47% 99-111 (210)
NO NotJump<$100	Nebraskaavg 58¢	$29	$29.25	+$0.25	52% 833-779 (1612)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Nebraskaavg 51.7¢	$23.25	$23.4	+$0.15	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 48¢	$4.62	$4.62	-$0	48% 293-321 (614)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 41¢	$2.81	$3.29	+$0.48	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nebraskaavg 51¢	$2.08	$2.12	+$0.04	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

primm

Nebraska

Invested

$937.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$394.18

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1ARB<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$470.1

Value

$420.22

PnL

-$49.88

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Rutgers$374.448¢-$50.7

Nebraska$95.758¢+$0.82

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$611.36

Value

$333.87

PnL

-$4.06

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Nebraska$257.7257.7¢-$22.06

Rutgers$75.841.9¢+$17.99

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$323.95

Value

$285.76

PnL

-$38.19

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

Rutgers$201.3546.2¢-$55.24

Nebraska$122.658.4¢+$17.05

cm2897CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$324.66

Value

$181.66

PnL

-$143.01

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

Pan9XARB<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$94.21

Value

$47.93

PnL

-$2.15

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Both legs:

Nebraska$24.2357.9¢-$3.13

Rutgers$24.1742.9¢+$0.98

AmericaFirst1<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$28.12

Value

$34.39

PnL

+$6.27

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

NotJump<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$29

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$23.25

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$2.81

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.48

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

ghorrock<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rutgers) and the top 1000 (8 on Nebraska) disagree here.

ctrNebraska 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRutgers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nebraska 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nebraska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.