Spread: Nebraska (-13.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nebraska (36%) · Nebraska at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Nebraska82¢Rutgers18¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nebraska

Consensus Traders

Nebraska 36%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$65.24

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 81.5¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska82%

Rutgers19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nebraska4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,843

Combined PnL+$111.12

Rutgers7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,917

Combined PnL-$45.88

Nebraska — 36%Rutgers — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRutgers 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRutgers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rutgers 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Nebraskaavg 57.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$46.4	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Rutgersavg 42¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$47.78	48% 34-37 (71)
PR primm	Nebraskaavg 56¢	$496.16	$624.63	+$128.47	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	Rutgersavg 44¢	$376.11	$320.55	-$55.56	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rutgersavg 43.6¢	$213.29	$183.28	-$30.02	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Nebraskaavg 59¢	$66.08	$91.28	+$25.2	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 41¢	$45.92	$42	-$3.92	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Nebraskaavg 56¢	$17.25	$21.1	+$3.85	47% 99-111 (210)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 44¢	$16.28	$13.88	-$2.41	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 41¢	$14.05	$12.85	-$1.2	37% 985-1642 (2627)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 44¢	$5.91	$1.62	-$0.55	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

HomeRunHazard

Nebraska

Invested

$1,659.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$46.4

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$1,002.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$47.78

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

primm

Nebraska

Invested

$496.16

Value

$624.63

PnL

+$128.47

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$376.11

Value

$320.55

PnL

-$55.56

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$213.29

Value

$183.28

PnL

-$30.02

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$66.08

Value

$91.28

PnL

+$25.2

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$45.92

Value

$42

PnL

-$3.92

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Nebraska

Invested

$17.25

Value

$21.1

PnL

+$3.85

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$16.28

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$2.41

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$14.05

Value

$12.85

PnL

-$1.2

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$5.91

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.55

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRutgers 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRutgers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rutgers 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nebraska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.