North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i: O/U 35.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 63¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$40.67

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 62.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,378

Combined PnL+$247.05

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,682

Combined PnL-$287.71

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 57.7¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$293.42	59% 1099-762 (1861)
RN1CTR	Overavg 42.8¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$260.05	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 39.3¢	$343.55	$345.52	+$1.97	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 42¢	$235.27	$210.26	-$25.02	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 38.8¢	$93.58	$95.19	+$1.61	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 59¢	$118.96	$72.59	-$46.37	48% 543-577 (1120)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46.84	$40.24	-$6.6	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$12.49	$12.94	+$0.45	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.83	-$0.07	58% 3865-2801 (6666)

primm

Under

Invested

$3,566.91

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$293.42

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,097.08

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$260.05

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$343.55

Value

$345.52

PnL

+$1.97

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$235.27

Value

$210.26

PnL

-$25.02

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.58

Value

$95.19

PnL

+$1.61

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$118.96

Value

$72.59

PnL

-$46.37

Record

48%

543-577 (1120)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.84

Value

$40.24

PnL

-$6.6

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.49

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.