Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hawai'i, while the market favors North Dakota State (56%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: North Dakota State (-6.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hawai'i (20%) · Hawai'i at 44¢ · $813 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Hawai'i
5
Hawai'i 20%
$812.54
-$12.86
Research grade
NeutralHawai'i at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors North Dakota State 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Hawai'iavg 45¢ | $581.85 | $568.92 | -$12.93 | 48% 683-728 (1411) |
 nigiri99 | North Dakota Stateavg 55¢ | $161.1 | $156.76 | -$4.34 | 50% 663-658 (1321) |
38 38791873984189 | North Dakota Stateavg 53¢ | $104.81 | $54.69 | +$3.88 | 48% 3662-4031 (7693) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 55¢ | $22.66 | $23.07 | +$0.41 | 44% 227-289 (516) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 55.2¢ | $8.98 | $9.11 | +$0.13 | 56% 3811-2982 (6793) |
Invested
$581.85
Value
$568.92
PnL
-$12.93
Record
48%
683-728 (1411)
nigiri99Invested
$161.1
Value
$156.76
PnL
-$4.34
Record
50%
663-658 (1321)
Invested
$104.81
Value
$54.69
PnL
+$3.88
Record
48%
3662-4031 (7693)
Invested
$22.66
Value
$23.07
PnL
+$0.41
Record
44%
227-289 (516)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$9.11
PnL
+$0.13
Record
56%
3811-2982 (6793)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.