North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold North Dakota State (50%) · North Dakota State at 72¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

North Dakota State72¢Hawai'i28¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Dakota State

Consensus Traders

North Dakota State 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$24.38

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 71.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Dakota State at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State72%

Hawai'i28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Dakota State4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,481

Combined PnL-$15.33

Hawai'i4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,165

Combined PnL-$9.05

North Dakota State — 50%Hawai'i — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	North Dakota Stateavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$15.54	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Hawai'iavg 28¢	$917.77	$934.16	+$16.39	48% 670-715 (1385)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hawai'iavg 29¢	$754.26	$728.25	-$26.01	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
PA Pan9X	North Dakota Stateavg 71¢	$106.5	$106.5	+$0	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
tradecraft<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 71¢	$94.37	$95.04	+$0.66	33% 415-860 (1275)
FE ferdinand2<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 72¢	$65.61	$65.15	-$0.46	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Hawai'iavg 28¢	$61.11	$62.2	+$1.09	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hawai'iavg 29.2¢	$61.68	$19.35	-$0.52	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

HomeRunHazard

North Dakota State

Invested

$2,237.14

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$15.54

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Hawai'i

Invested

$917.77

Value

$934.16

PnL

+$16.39

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hawai'i

Invested

$754.26

Value

$728.25

PnL

-$26.01

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Pan9X

North Dakota State

Invested

$106.5

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

tradecraft<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$94.37

Value

$95.04

PnL

+$0.66

Record

33%

415-860 (1275)

ferdinand2<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$65.61

Value

$65.15

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$61.11

Value

$62.2

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$61.68

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Dakota State at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Dakota State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.