North Dakota vs. Youngstown State: O/U 61.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$5.1K
$10.86
53¢ → 56¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Underavg 53¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$42.34 | 49% 153-157 (310) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 46.2¢ | $419.91 | $400.47 | -$19.43 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 40.4¢ | $100.02 | $114 | -$12.04 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $11.73 | $11.73 | +$0 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.53 | $4.53 | +$0 | 51% 226-220 (446) |
Invested
$4,463.69
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$42.34
Record
49%
153-157 (310)
Invested
$419.91
Value
$400.47
PnL
-$19.43
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$100.02
Value
$114
PnL
-$12.04
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$11.73
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
226-220 (446)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.