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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was UConn — but North Carolina won instead.

Spread: North Carolina (-6.5)

Resolved North Carolina. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held UConn. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

UConn 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Signal

UConn

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Carolina100%

UConn0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Carolina4 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,242

Combined PnL+$2.8K

UConn9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,469

Combined PnL$-4.6K

North Carolina — 31%UConn — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	North Carolinaavg 56¢	$3.2K	$5.7K	+$2.5K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	UConnavg 44¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
VeryLucky888CTR	UConnavg 42.1¢	$780.85	—	-$780.85	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UConnavg 47¢	$514.53	—	-$558.34	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	UConnavg 42¢	$317.2	—	-$317.2	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	North Carolinaavg 52¢	$260	$500	+$240	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
CM cm2897CTR	UConnavg 39¢	$200.85	—	-$200.85	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	North Carolinaavg 60.9¢	$308.76	$291	+$55.17	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ North Carolina leg	North Carolinaavg 60.9¢	$177.3	$291	+$113.7
└ UConn leg	UConnavg 45.7¢	$45.93	—	-$58.53
NM NM-PCTR	UConnavg 42¢	$147	—	-$147	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UConnavg 43.1¢	$43.31	—	-$36.23	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Carolinaavg 74.5¢	$47.45	$53.95	+$9.23	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI lightotunnel35CTR<$100	UConnavg 48¢	$12.16	—	-$12.16	59% 103-72 (175)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	UConnavg 37¢	$7.4	—	-$7.4	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	North Carolinaavg 58¢	$10.06	$17.34	+$7.28	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

Invested

$3,175.76

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Invested

$2,539.24

Value

—

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$780.85

Value

—

PnL

-$780.85

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Invested

$514.53

Value

—

PnL

-$558.34

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Invested

$317.2

Value

—

PnL

-$317.2

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$260

Value

$500

PnL

+$240

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Invested

$200.85

Value

—

PnL

-$200.85

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$308.76

Value

$291

PnL

+$55.17

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

North Carolina$177.360.9¢+$113.7

UConn$45.9345.7¢-$58.53

Invested

$147

Value

—

PnL

-$147

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$43.31

Value

—

PnL

-$36.23

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Invested

$47.45

Value

$53.95

PnL

+$9.23

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

lightotunnel35CTR<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

—

PnL

-$12.16

Record

59%

103-72 (175)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

—

PnL

-$7.4

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$10.06

Value

$17.34

PnL

+$7.28

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Smart Money Signal

UConn

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcdac5bc6...d32617

Slug

cfb-ncar-uconn-2026-11-07-spread-away-6pt5

Traders in this Market

RN1

North Carolina — $5.7K

CUTJALENHURTS

UConn — $0

VeryLucky888

UConn — $0

SnakeBall

UConn — $0

HomeRunHazard

UConn — $0

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

North Carolina — $500

cm2897

UConn — $0

38791873984189

Arbitrage — excluded

NM-P

UConn — $0

ghorrock

UConn — $0

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