Spread: Liberty (-20.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Liberty (88%) · Liberty at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Liberty
8
Liberty 88%
$13.4K
-$138.03
52.8¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralLiberty at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Middle Tennesseeavg 47.2¢ | $6.4K | $6.3K | -$32.76 | 50% 2513-2472 (4985) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Libertyavg 53¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$49.55 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
HI hi774c | Libertyavg 53¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$37.74 | 22% 179-618 (797) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Libertyavg 52¢ | $751.09 | $751.09 | +$0 | 49% 635-674 (1309) |
38 38791873984189 | Libertyavg 52.6¢ | $1.4K | $722.03 | +$1.48 | 48% 3205-3505 (6710) |
 VeryLucky888 | Libertyavg 52¢ | $520 | $520 | +$0 | 53% 1343-1170 (2513) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Libertyavg 54¢ | $522.84 | $503.48 | -$19.36 | 49% 536-565 (1101) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Libertyavg 53¢ | $5.34 | $5.24 | -$0.1 | 52% 1716-1565 (3281) |
Invested
$6,372.75
Value
$6.3K
PnL
-$32.76
Record
50%
2513-2472 (4985)
Invested
$2,626
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$49.55
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$37.74
Record
22%
179-618 (797)
Invested
$751.09
Value
$751.09
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
635-674 (1309)
Invested
$1,415.55
Value
$722.03
PnL
+$1.48
Record
48%
3205-3505 (6710)
VeryLucky888Invested
$520
Value
$520
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1343-1170 (2513)
Invested
$522.84
Value
$503.48
PnL
-$19.36
Record
49%
536-565 (1101)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
1716-1565 (3281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRMiddle Tennessee — $6.3K
HomeRunHazard
Liberty — $2.6K
hi774c
Liberty — $2.0K
Multicoloured-Serf
Liberty — $751.09
38791873984189
Liberty — $722.03
VeryLucky888
Liberty — $520
0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186
Liberty — $503.48
ghorrock
Liberty — $5.24