Mississippi Valley State vs. Florida A&M
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Florida A&M (67%) · Florida A&M at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Florida A&M
9
Florida A&M 67%
$2.2K
-$16.92
79.3¢ → 71¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida A&M at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Florida A&Mavg 80.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$69.1 | 48% 3305-3631 (6936) |
 nigiri99CTR | Mississippi Valley Stateavg 19.6¢ | $303.5 | $379.75 | +$76.25 | 51% 579-546 (1125) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Florida A&Mavg 77¢ | $280.28 | $258.44 | -$21.84 | 58% 3662-2648 (6310) |
 RN1CTR | Mississippi Valley Stateavg 23¢ | $146.97 | $162.95 | +$15.97 | 55% 5474-4481 (9955) |
SU suitcase6628 | Florida A&Mavg 77¢ | $146.3 | $134.9 | -$11.4 | 65% 638-350 (988) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Mississippi Valley Stateavg 50¢ | $105 | $105 | +$0 | 52% 895-837 (1732) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Florida A&Mavg 77¢ | $65.45 | $60.35 | -$5.1 | 45% 707-867 (1574) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Florida A&Mavg 79¢ | $29.44 | $28.14 | -$1.3 | 53% 1867-1658 (3525) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Florida A&Mavg 78¢ | $12.68 | $12.27 | -$0.41 | 50% 3828-3802 (7630) |
Invested
$1,128.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$69.1
Record
48%
3305-3631 (6936)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$303.5
Value
$379.75
PnL
+$76.25
Record
51%
579-546 (1125)
Invested
$280.28
Value
$258.44
PnL
-$21.84
Record
58%
3662-2648 (6310)
RN1CTRInvested
$146.97
Value
$162.95
PnL
+$15.97
Record
55%
5474-4481 (9955)
Invested
$146.3
Value
$134.9
PnL
-$11.4
Record
65%
638-350 (988)
Invested
$105
Value
$105
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
895-837 (1732)
Invested
$65.45
Value
$60.35
PnL
-$5.1
Record
45%
707-867 (1574)
Invested
$29.44
Value
$28.14
PnL
-$1.3
Record
53%
1867-1658 (3525)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$12.27
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
3828-3802 (7630)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Florida A&M — $1.1K
nigiri99
CTRMississippi Valley State — $379.75
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Florida A&M — $258.44
RN1
CTRMississippi Valley State — $162.95
suitcase6628
Florida A&M — $134.9
NotJump
CTRMississippi Valley State — $105
smithagent
Florida A&M — $60.35
ghorrock
Florida A&M — $28.14
6512395314597884
Florida A&M — $12.27