Memphis vs. South Florida

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Memphis (33%) · Memphis at 63¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 13

Memphis63¢South Florida37¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Memphis

Consensus Traders

Memphis 33%

Total Value

$34.8K

Combined PnL

$7.04

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Memphis63%

South Florida38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Memphis3 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares35,142

Combined PnL-$19.52

South Florida6 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares33,249

Combined PnL+$26.56

Memphis — 33%South Florida — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSouth Florida 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000South Florida 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Memphisavg 63¢	$12.2K	$12.1K	-$96.53	49% 507-532 (1039)
PW Pwaddler	Memphisavg 62¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$78.24	49% 263-278 (541)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	South Floridaavg 38¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$73.47	48% 579-615 (1194)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	South Floridaavg 37¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$52.48	48% 21-23 (44)
VeryLucky888CTR	South Floridaavg 37.2¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$27.03	52% 761-712 (1473)
38 38791873984189CTR	South Floridaavg 37¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$20.5	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
HO HomeRunHazard	Memphisavg 62¢	$140.9	$139.66	-$1.24	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 37.8¢	$63.92	$56.5	-$0.19	53% 933-821 (1754)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 36.1¢	$8.9	$9.11	+$0.21	46% 440-515 (955)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Memphis

Invested

$12,162.37

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$96.53

Record

49%

507-532 (1039)

Pwaddler

Memphis

Invested

$9,701.67

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$78.24

Record

49%

263-278 (541)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

South Florida

Invested

$5,584

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$73.47

Record

48%

579-615 (1194)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

South Florida

Invested

$3,883.52

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$52.48

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

VeryLucky888CTR

South Florida

Invested

$1,807.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$27.03

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

38791873984189CTR

South Florida

Invested

$1,517

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$20.5

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

HomeRunHazard

Memphis

Invested

$140.9

Value

$139.66

PnL

-$1.24

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

ghorrockCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$63.92

Value

$56.5

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.11

PnL

+$0.21

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Research grade

NeutralMemphis at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Memphis

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Memphis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMemphis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSouth Florida 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000South Florida 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Memphis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.