Spread: Georgia (-24.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Missouri (78%) · Missouri at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Georgia32¢Missouri68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Missouri

Consensus Traders

Missouri 78%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$2.78

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMissouri at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Missouri

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia32%

Missouri69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Missouri7 traders

Total Value$967.03

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL-$1.04

Georgia2 traders

Total Value$338.42

Total Shares1,076

Combined PnL-$1.73

Missouri — 78%Georgia — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Missouri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMissouri 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMissouri 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Missouri 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Missouriavg 68¢	$455.85	$439.25	-$16.6	48% 280-301 (581)
PU purplegattoCTR	Georgiaavg 31.8¢	$305.6	$302.72	-$2.89	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
38 38791873984189	Missouriavg 68¢	$242.76	$246.33	+$3.57	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
HI hithitfar	Missouriavg 61¢	$115.9	$130.15	+$14.25	— 14-5 (19)
nigiri99<$100	Missouriavg 69.9¢	$83.18	$81.52	-$1.66	51% 568-535 (1103)
PA Pan9X<$100	Missouriavg 70¢	$54.6	$53.82	-$0.78	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Georgiaavg 30¢	$34.56	$35.71	+$1.15	45% 263-319 (582)
GH ghorrock<$100	Missouriavg 70.3¢	$10.78	$10.58	-$0.21	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Missouriavg 64¢	$5	$5.39	+$0.39	39% 3677-5855 (9532)

Gaditima

Missouri

Invested

$455.85

Value

$439.25

PnL

-$16.6

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

purplegattoCTR

Georgia

Invested

$305.6

Value

$302.72

PnL

-$2.89

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

38791873984189

Missouri

Invested

$242.76

Value

$246.33

PnL

+$3.57

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

hithitfar

Missouri

Invested

$115.9

Value

$130.15

PnL

+$14.25

Record

—

14-5 (19)

nigiri99<$100

Missouri

Invested

$83.18

Value

$81.52

PnL

-$1.66

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Pan9X<$100

Missouri

Invested

$54.6

Value

$53.82

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$34.56

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$1.15

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

ghorrock<$100

Missouri

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.58

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Missouri

Invested

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$0.39

Record

39%

3677-5855 (9532)

Research grade

NeutralMissouri at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Missouri

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Missouri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMissouri 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMissouri 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Missouri 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Missouri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.