Spread: Georgia (-15.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia (33%) · Georgia at 53¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia53¢Missouri47¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia

Consensus Traders

Georgia 33%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$165.67

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia53%

Missouri47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,209

Combined PnL-$96.32

Missouri6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,605

Combined PnL-$69.36

Georgia — 33%Missouri — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Georgiaavg 53¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$100	45% 14-17 (31)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Missouriavg 47¢	$5.6K	$4.7K	-$64.34	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Missouriavg 47¢	$376	$372	-$4	25% 350-1027 (1377)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Missouriavg 47¢	$185.18	$183.21	-$1.97	54% 286-244 (530)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Georgiaavg 52¢	$100.31	$104.17	+$3.86	48% 635-675 (1310)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Missouriavg 47¢	$65.62	$66.32	+$0.7	48% 301-331 (632)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Missouriavg 45.3¢	$39.42	$39.62	+$0.2	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603<$100	Georgiaavg 53¢	$9.54	$9.36	-$0.18	60% 15-10 (25)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Missouriavg 47¢	$4.74	$4.79	+$0.05	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Georgia

Invested

$5,300

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$100

Record

45%

14-17 (31)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Missouri

Invested

$5,560.73

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$64.34

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Missouri

Invested

$376

Value

$372

PnL

-$4

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Missouri

Invested

$185.18

Value

$183.21

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Multicoloured-Serf

Georgia

Invested

$100.31

Value

$104.17

PnL

+$3.86

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$65.62

Value

$66.32

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$39.42

Value

$39.62

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603<$100

Georgia

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.36

PnL

-$0.18

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.