Spread: Georgia (-13.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia (56%) · Georgia at 99¢ · $309 held · ended Nov 14

Georgia99¢Missouri1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia

Consensus Traders

Georgia 56%

Total Value

$308.77

Combined PnL

$12.39

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 98.7¢

+72% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia99%

Missouri1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia5 traders

Total Value$192.91

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$13.54

Missouri4 traders

Total Value$115.87

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$1.15

Georgia — 56%Missouri — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMissouri 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Georgia 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189<$100	Georgiaavg 57¢	$78.04	$83.52	+$5.48	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PR primmCTR<$100	Missouriavg 41¢	$82.8	$82.8	+$0	59% 948-662 (1610)
PA Pan9X<$100	Georgiaavg 57.5¢	$51.75	$54.9	+$3.15	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Georgiaavg 58¢	$33.43	$35.16	+$1.73	47% 319-356 (675)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Missouriavg 43.2¢	$20.76	$19.68	-$1.08	47% 974-1105 (2079)
GH ghorrock<$100	Georgiaavg 57¢	$11.26	$11.66	+$0.4	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Missouriavg 41¢	$10.58	$10.58	+$0	46% 516-615 (1131)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Georgiaavg 61¢	$4.88	$7.66	+$2.78	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Missouriavg 42¢	$2.87	$2.8	-$0.07	50% 114-116 (230)

38791873984189<$100

Georgia

Invested

$78.04

Value

$83.52

PnL

+$5.48

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

primmCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$82.8

Value

$82.8

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

Pan9X<$100

Georgia

Invested

$51.75

Value

$54.9

PnL

+$3.15

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Georgia

Invested

$33.43

Value

$35.16

PnL

+$1.73

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$20.76

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$1.08

Record

47%

974-1105 (2079)

ghorrock<$100

Georgia

Invested

$11.26

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

516-615 (1131)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Georgia

Invested

$4.88

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$2.78

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

114-116 (230)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMissouri 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Georgia 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.