Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Missouri, while the market favors Georgia (88%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Missouri vs. Georgia

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Missouri (90%) · Missouri at 13¢ · $891 held · ends Nov 14

Missouri13¢Georgia87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Missouri

Consensus Traders

Missouri 90%

Total Value

$891.18

Combined PnL

-$29.92

Smart Money Entry

13¢ → 12.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidMissouri at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Missouri

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 88%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Missouri13%

Georgia88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Missouri9 traders

Total Value$859.59

Total Shares6,851

Combined PnL-$29.74

Georgia1 trader

Total Value$31.59

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$0.18

Missouri — 90%Georgia — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Missouri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMissouri 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMissouri 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Missouri 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Missouriavg 13¢	$520.39	$493.74	-$17.92	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Missouriavg 13¢	$260	$250	-$10	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Missouriavg 13.1¢	$49	$48.49	-$0.51	47% 936-1037 (1973)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Georgiaavg 87¢	$31.77	$31.59	-$0.18	46% 499-597 (1096)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Missouriavg 13¢	$19.24	$19.24	+$0	48% 34-37 (71)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Missouriavg 13¢	$19.5	$18.75	-$0.75	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Missouriavg 13¢	$14.91	$14.91	+$0	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Missouriavg 13¢	$11.83	$11.38	-$0.46	51% 568-535 (1103)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Missouriavg 13¢	$2.6	$2.5	-$0.1	44% 87-112 (199)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Missouriavg 13¢	$0.58	$0.58	-$0	48% 635-675 (1310)

VeryLucky888CTR

Missouri

Invested

$520.39

Value

$493.74

PnL

-$17.92

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

6512395314597884CTR

Missouri

Invested

$260

Value

$250

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$49

Value

$48.49

PnL

-$0.51

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Georgia

Invested

$31.77

Value

$31.59

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$19.24

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$14.91

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$11.83

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0.46

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

efntrickCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

Research grade

AvoidMissouri at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Missouri

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 88%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Missouri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMissouri 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMissouri 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Missouri 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Missouri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.