Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: O/U 49.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 95¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$215.97

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 94.5¢

+67% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,410

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over5 traders

Total Value$642.37

Total Shares5,155

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Underavg 54.7¢	$2.8K	$4.3K	+$1.5K	30% 30-69 (99)
RN1	Underavg 63.4¢	$783.52	$1.1K	+$318.99	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 45.4¢	$1.2K	$271.84	-$901.87	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 45¢	$380.07	$135.14	-$244.94	26% 250-698 (948)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 56¢	$355.6	$101.6	-$254	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45¢	$263.78	$93.79	-$169.99	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 79¢	$43.04	$48.76	+$5.72	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$80	$40	-$40	42% 762-1074 (1836)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 39¢	$3.84	$8.26	+$4.43	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

lightotunnel35

Under

Invested

$2,799.02

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

30%

30-69 (99)

RN1

Under

Invested

$783.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$318.99

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,178.82

Value

$271.84

PnL

-$901.87

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$380.07

Value

$135.14

PnL

-$244.94

Record

26%

250-698 (948)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$355.6

Value

$101.6

PnL

-$254

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$263.78

Value

$93.79

PnL

-$169.99

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$43.04

Value

$48.76

PnL

+$5.72

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80

Value

$40

PnL

-$40

Record

42%

762-1074 (1836)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$3.84

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$4.43

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.