Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ole Miss, while the market favors Oklahoma (63%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Oklahoma (-7.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ole Miss (33%) · Ole Miss at 37¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma63¢Ole Miss37¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ole Miss

Consensus Traders

Ole Miss 33%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$400.32

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 37¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma63%

Ole Miss37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ole Miss3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,994

Combined PnL-$139.62

Oklahoma6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,520

Combined PnL+$539.94

Ole Miss — 33%Oklahoma — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Ole Missavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$86.73	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
BI biying88888	Oklahomaavg 41¢	$370.64	$759.36	+$388.72	43% 247-322 (569)
TA takeormake	Oklahomaavg 59.5¢	$452	$380	-$72	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
CM cm2897	Oklahomaavg 61.4¢	$304.97	$355.08	+$75.99	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
38 38791873984189	Oklahomaavg 45.2¢	$333.28	$280.24	+$156.93	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ole Missavg 58.3¢	$312.1	$85.6	-$226.5	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
PA Pan9X<$100	Oklahomaavg 72.8¢	$50.64	$46.65	-$3.99	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Oklahomaavg 59¢	$37.47	$31.76	-$5.72	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Ole Missavg 53¢	$2.03	$2.18	+$0.15	49% 2896-2959 (5855)

RN1CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$1,381.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$86.73

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

biying88888

Oklahoma

Invested

$370.64

Value

$759.36

PnL

+$388.72

Record

43%

247-322 (569)

takeormake

Oklahoma

Invested

$452

Value

$380

PnL

-$72

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

cm2897

Oklahoma

Invested

$304.97

Value

$355.08

PnL

+$75.99

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

38791873984189

Oklahoma

Invested

$333.28

Value

$280.24

PnL

+$156.93

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

6512395314597884CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$312.1

Value

$85.6

PnL

-$226.5

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Pan9X<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$50.64

Value

$46.65

PnL

-$3.99

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$37.47

Value

$31.76

PnL

-$5.72

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ole Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.