Spread: Oklahoma (-6.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (80%) · Oklahoma at 74¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma74¢Ole Miss26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 80%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$643.05

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 74¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma74%

Ole Miss26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,385

Combined PnL+$492.17

Ole Miss2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,330

Combined PnL+$150.89

Oklahoma — 80%Ole Miss — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOklahoma 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Oklahomaavg 61.4¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$269.74	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
CM cm2897CTR	Ole Missavg 38.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$151.33	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
LI Limousin	Oklahomaavg 37¢	$266.11	$510.64	+$244.53	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
TA takeormake	Oklahomaavg 67¢	$431.84	$457.95	+$26.11	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
65 6512395314597884	Oklahomaavg 64.8¢	$337.23	$352.92	+$15.69	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189	Oklahomaavg 65.2¢	$1.0K	$245.75	-$107.56	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Oklahomaavg 64.3¢	$446.91	$168.88	+$31.01	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
NO NotJump<$100	Oklahomaavg 64.5¢	$64.51	$70.99	+$6.48	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
PA Pan9X<$100	Oklahomaavg 54¢	$20.57	$26.73	+$6.16	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Ole Missavg 32¢	$4.8	$4.35	-$0.45	49% 2896-2959 (5855)

RN1

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,821

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$269.74

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

cm2897CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$1,290.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$151.33

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

Limousin

Oklahoma

Invested

$266.11

Value

$510.64

PnL

+$244.53

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

takeormake

Oklahoma

Invested

$431.84

Value

$457.95

PnL

+$26.11

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

6512395314597884

Oklahoma

Invested

$337.23

Value

$352.92

PnL

+$15.69

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,008.57

Value

$245.75

PnL

-$107.56

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Oklahoma

Invested

$446.91

Value

$168.88

PnL

+$31.01

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

NotJump<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$64.51

Value

$70.99

PnL

+$6.48

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Pan9X<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$20.57

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$6.16

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOklahoma 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.