Spread: Oklahoma (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (50%) · Oklahoma at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Oklahoma53¢Ole Miss47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$126.44

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma53%

Ole Miss48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,667

Combined PnL+$190.11

Ole Miss4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,265

Combined PnL-$63.67

Oklahoma — 50%Ole Miss — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1	Oklahomaavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$101.04	51% 352-339 (691)
nigiri99	Oklahomaavg 48¢	$710.4	$791.8	+$81.4	51% 568-535 (1103)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ole Missavg 52¢	$574.08	$513.36	-$60.72	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
VE VenusianCTR	Ole Missavg 47¢	$242.05	$244.63	+$2.57	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LI LimousinCTR	Ole Missavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	36% 979-1704 (2683)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Oklahomaavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	69% 133-60 (193)
└ Oklahoma leg	Oklahomaavg 50¢	$100	$107	+$7
└ Ole Miss leg	Ole Missavg 50¢	$100	$93	-$7
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Oklahomaavg 48¢	$64.79	$72.21	+$7.42	48% 635-675 (1310)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Ole Missavg 52¢	$75.92	$67.89	-$8.03	48% 301-331 (632)
GH ghorrock<$100	Oklahomaavg 51¢	$5.14	$5.39	+$0.25	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

bands1

Oklahoma

Invested

$2,061.19

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$101.04

Record

51%

352-339 (691)

nigiri99

Oklahoma

Invested

$710.4

Value

$791.8

PnL

+$81.4

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

38791873984189CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$574.08

Value

$513.36

PnL

-$60.72

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

VenusianCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$242.05

Value

$244.63

PnL

+$2.57

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

LimousinCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

Both legs:

Oklahoma$10050¢+$7

Ole Miss$10050¢-$7

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$64.79

Value

$72.21

PnL

+$7.42

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$75.92

Value

$67.89

PnL

-$8.03

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

ghorrock<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.