Spread: Oklahoma (-17.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ole Miss (56%) · Ole Miss at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma19¢Ole Miss81¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ole Miss

Consensus Traders

Ole Miss 56%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$22.73

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 81.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma19%

Ole Miss82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ole Miss5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,330

Combined PnL-$168.57

Oklahoma4 traders

Total Value$958.11

Total Shares3,458

Combined PnL+$191.3

Ole Miss — 56%Oklahoma — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Ole Missavg 84¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$351.56	36% 205-363 (568)
GA GaditimaCTR	Oklahomaavg 16¢	$333.88	$689.03	+$355.16	49% 407-417 (824)
RN1	Ole Missavg 67¢	$547.39	$665.85	+$118.47	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
TA takeormakeCTR	Oklahomaavg 33¢	$416.46	$233.47	-$182.99	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
38 38791873984189	Ole Missavg 67¢	$138.02	$167.89	+$29.87	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
65 6512395314597884	Ole Missavg 67¢	$134	$163	+$29	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ole Missavg 67¢	$26.13	$31.78	+$5.65	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Oklahomaavg 15¢	$11.76	$25.87	+$14.11	44% 341-427 (768)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Oklahomaavg 16¢	$4.72	$9.74	+$5.02	38% 3857-6319 (10176)

forecastication4

Ole Miss

Invested

$1,737.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$351.56

Record

36%

205-363 (568)

GaditimaCTR

Oklahoma

Invested

$333.88

Value

$689.03

PnL

+$355.16

Record

49%

407-417 (824)

RN1

Ole Miss

Invested

$547.39

Value

$665.85

PnL

+$118.47

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

takeormakeCTR

Oklahoma

Invested

$416.46

Value

$233.47

PnL

-$182.99

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

38791873984189

Ole Miss

Invested

$138.02

Value

$167.89

PnL

+$29.87

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

6512395314597884

Ole Miss

Invested

$134

Value

$163

PnL

+$29

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Pan9X<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$26.13

Value

$31.78

PnL

+$5.65

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$11.76

Value

$25.87

PnL

+$14.11

Record

44%

341-427 (768)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$4.72

Value

$9.74

PnL

+$5.02

Record

38%

3857-6319 (10176)

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ole Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.