Spread: Oklahoma (-14.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ole Miss (56%) · Ole Miss at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma8¢Ole Miss92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ole Miss

Consensus Traders

Ole Miss 56%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$111.67

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 92¢

+27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma8%

Ole Miss92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ole Miss5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,587

Combined PnL+$352.49

Oklahoma4 traders

Total Value$192.21

Total Shares2,136

Combined PnL-$464.15

Ole Miss — 56%Oklahoma — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Ole Missavg 81¢	$787.83	$875.37	+$87.54	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
RN1	Ole Missavg 59¢	$485.01	$701.25	+$216.24	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ole Missavg 89.6¢	$377.79	$383.71	+$5.92	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
65 6512395314597884	Ole Missavg 59¢	$340	$382	+$42	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
TA takeormakeCTR	Oklahomaavg 41.1¢	$466.26	$102.06	-$364.2	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Oklahomaavg 19¢	$182.77	$86.58	-$96.19	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ole Missavg 58.5¢	$62.82	$27.29	+$0.79	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Oklahomaavg 18.6¢	$5.89	$2.85	-$3.04	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Oklahomaavg 18¢	$1.44	$0.72	-$0.72	38% 1425-2328 (3753)

38791873984189

Ole Miss

Invested

$787.83

Value

$875.37

PnL

+$87.54

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

RN1

Ole Miss

Invested

$485.01

Value

$701.25

PnL

+$216.24

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ole Miss

Invested

$377.79

Value

$383.71

PnL

+$5.92

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

6512395314597884

Ole Miss

Invested

$340

Value

$382

PnL

+$42

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

takeormakeCTR

Oklahoma

Invested

$466.26

Value

$102.06

PnL

-$364.2

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

MadridTimeCTR

Oklahoma

Invested

$182.77

Value

$86.58

PnL

-$96.19

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Pan9X<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$62.82

Value

$27.29

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

VenusianCTR<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$5.89

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$3.04

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.72

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ole Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.