Minnesota vs. Penn State: O/U 43.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 55¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$51.21

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,638

Combined PnL+$41.98

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,826

Combined PnL+$9.23

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 54¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$39.43	49% 650-689 (1339)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$841.18	$847.29	+$6.11	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 46¢	$554.77	$548.74	-$6.03	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46¢	$384.61	$388.79	+$4.18	47% 985-1122 (2107)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53¢	$281.88	$284.53	+$2.66	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	68% 136-63 (199)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75	39% 419-652 (1071)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$92	$93	+$1	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$17.02	$17.21	+$0.19	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 55¢	$11.55	$11.45	-$0.11	53% 310-274 (584)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$7.2	$7.44	+$0.24	47% 339-375 (714)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$4.09	$4.14	+$0.05	50% 2600-2575 (5175)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$4,257.97

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$39.43

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$841.18

Value

$847.29

PnL

+$6.11

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$554.77

Value

$548.74

PnL

-$6.03

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$384.61

Value

$388.79

PnL

+$4.18

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$281.88

Value

$284.53

PnL

+$2.66

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$161

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$161

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92

Value

$93

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.02

Value

$17.21

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.45

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.