Michigan vs. Oregon: O/U 45.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$273.7

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,691

Combined PnL+$134.78

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,708

Combined PnL+$138.92

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 57.2¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$124.58	59% 932-653 (1585)
RN1CTR	Underavg 42.9¢	$896.14	$855.52	-$40.62	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51¢	$569.63	$737.09	+$167.46	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$199.7	$212.55	+$12.85	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$111.7	$144.55	+$32.85
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$88	$68	-$20
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 39.3¢	$184.32	$190.11	+$5.79	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 30.7¢	$167.12	$163.27	-$3.85	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
SH shiifoo	Overavg 67¢	$134	$144	+$10	61% 1433-918 (2351)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 56¢	$136.08	$134.87	-$1.22	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$66	$80	+$14	65% 635-348 (983)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$26.88	$19.2	-$7.68	43% 187-248 (435)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 34.6¢	$47.47	$18.84	+$5.56	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.7	+$0.2	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$2.17	$1.64	-$0.53	37% 1116-1869 (2985)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,567.18

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$124.58

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$896.14

Value

$855.52

PnL

-$40.62

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$569.63

Value

$737.09

PnL

+$167.46

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$199.7

Value

$212.55

PnL

+$12.85

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Both legs:

Under$111.751¢+$32.85

Over$8844¢-$20

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$184.32

Value

$190.11

PnL

+$5.79

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$167.12

Value

$163.27

PnL

-$3.85

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

shiifoo

Over

Invested

$134

Value

$144

PnL

+$10

Record

61%

1433-918 (2351)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$136.08

Value

$134.87

PnL

-$1.22

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$80

PnL

+$14

Record

65%

635-348 (983)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.88

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$7.68

Record

43%

187-248 (435)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.47

Value

$18.84

PnL

+$5.56

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.17

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.53

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.