Michigan vs. Oregon: O/U 43.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 69¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$517.04

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 69¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares14,885

Combined PnL+$319.66

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares15,747

Combined PnL+$197.38

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 55.1¢	$6.4K	$6.2K	-$182.93	59% 932-653 (1585)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 45¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$205.18	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
VI vibing123	Overavg 49.9¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$488.68	62% 1141-702 (1843)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$981.12	$1.1K	+$139.2	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 47.2¢	$687.49	$749.67	+$62.18	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 57.4¢	$685.79	$605.58	-$75.62	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 38¢	$264.26	$278.17	+$13.91	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Underavg 49¢	$294	$186	-$108	61% 1041-657 (1698)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$153.16	$156.89	+$3.73	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$84.12	$39.38	+$4.26	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 48¢	$841.57	$10.53	-$33.55	55% 1630-1337 (2967)

primm

Over

Invested

$6,404.21

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$182.93

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$4,500.65

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$205.18

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$1,278.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$488.68

Record

62%

1141-702 (1843)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$981.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$139.2

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$687.49

Value

$749.67

PnL

+$62.18

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$685.79

Value

$605.58

PnL

-$75.62

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$264.26

Value

$278.17

PnL

+$13.91

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Under

Invested

$294

Value

$186

PnL

-$108

Record

61%

1041-657 (1698)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$153.16

Value

$156.89

PnL

+$3.73

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.12

Value

$39.38

PnL

+$4.26

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$841.57

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$33.55

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.