Spread: Oregon (-7.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (30%) · Oregon at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Oregon82¢Michigan18¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 30%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$173.53

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 82¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon82%

Michigan18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,325

Combined PnL+$177.97

Michigan7 traders

Total Value$948.29

Total Shares3,474

Combined PnL-$351.5

Oregon — 30%Michigan — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon) and the top 1000 (9 on Michigan) disagree here.

ctrMichigan 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOregon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Oregonavg 61.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$4.71	48% 289-310 (599)
RN1	Oregonavg 64¢	$500.48	$645.15	+$144.67	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Michiganavg 39¢	$578.28	$533.8	-$44.48	47% 974-1105 (2079)
JU justaluckydude	Oregonavg 76¢	$412.68	$450.69	+$38.01	48% 543-600 (1143)
PR primmCTR	Michiganavg 36¢	$299.88	$145.77	-$154.11	59% 948-662 (1610)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Michiganavg 24¢	$121.56	$129.41	+$7.85	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Michiganavg 45¢	$141.41	$54.99	-$86.42	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
38 38791873984189CTR	Michiganavg 45¢	$117.03	$45.51	-$71.52	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Michiganavg 28¢	$34.53	$27.67	-$1.74	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Michiganavg 39.5¢	$12.21	$11.13	-$1.08	53% 1867-1658 (3525)

Gaditima

Oregon

Invested

$1,224.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.71

Record

48%

289-310 (599)

RN1

Oregon

Invested

$500.48

Value

$645.15

PnL

+$144.67

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

SnakeBallCTR

Michigan

Invested

$578.28

Value

$533.8

PnL

-$44.48

Record

47%

974-1105 (2079)

justaluckydude

Oregon

Invested

$412.68

Value

$450.69

PnL

+$38.01

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

primmCTR

Michigan

Invested

$299.88

Value

$145.77

PnL

-$154.11

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Michigan

Invested

$121.56

Value

$129.41

PnL

+$7.85

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Michigan

Invested

$141.41

Value

$54.99

PnL

-$86.42

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

38791873984189CTR

Michigan

Invested

$117.03

Value

$45.51

PnL

-$71.52

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$34.53

Value

$27.67

PnL

-$1.74

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$12.21

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon) and the top 1000 (9 on Michigan) disagree here.

ctrMichigan 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOregon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.