Spread: Oregon (-14.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (63%) · Oregon at 51¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Oregon51¢Michigan49¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$32.73

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 50.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oregon51%

Michigan50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan3 traders

Total Value$480.97

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL+$7.33

Oregon5 traders

Total Value$633.59

Total Shares1,013

Combined PnL-$40.06

Michigan — 38%Oregon — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Michiganavg 38.9¢	$378.45	$422.82	+$44.37	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
38 38791873984189	Oregonavg 61.3¢	$603.08	$410.79	-$104.13	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Oregonavg 36¢	$140.96	$108.28	+$54.36	49% 1179-1209 (2388)
└ Oregon leg	Oregonavg 36¢	$48.96	$83.64	+$34.68
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 46¢	$29.44	$24.64	+$19.68
LI Limousin<$100	Oregonavg 37¢	$58.48	$93.25	+$34.77	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
SH shiifoo<$100	Oregonavg 57.6¢	$57.58	$61.5	+$3.92	61% 1434-918 (2352)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Michiganavg 63.7¢	$92.35	$55.83	-$36.52	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
MA MadridTime<$100	Oregonavg 37¢	$30.94	$49.34	+$18.4	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
LI LightParadox<$100	Oregonavg 37¢	$11.74	$18.71	+$6.98	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Michiganavg 47¢	$2.84	$2.32	-$0.51	55% 1658-1357 (3015)

6512395314597884CTR

Michigan

Invested

$378.45

Value

$422.82

PnL

+$44.37

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

38791873984189

Oregon

Invested

$603.08

Value

$410.79

PnL

-$104.13

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

cm2897ARB<$100

Oregon

Invested

$140.96

Value

$108.28

PnL

+$54.36

Record

49%

1179-1209 (2388)

Both legs:

Oregon$48.9636¢+$34.68

Michigan$29.4446¢+$19.68

Limousin<$100

Oregon

Invested

$58.48

Value

$93.25

PnL

+$34.77

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

shiifoo<$100

Oregon

Invested

$57.58

Value

$61.5

PnL

+$3.92

Record

61%

1434-918 (2352)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$92.35

Value

$55.83

PnL

-$36.52

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

MadridTime<$100

Oregon

Invested

$30.94

Value

$49.34

PnL

+$18.4

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

LightParadox<$100

Oregon

Invested

$11.74

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$6.98

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$2.84

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.51

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.