Spread: Oregon (-13.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (55%) · Oregon at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Oregon>99¢Michigan<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$171.95

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 99.1¢

+60% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oregon99%

Michigan1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,018

Combined PnL+$564.07

Michigan5 traders

Total Value$695.87

Total Shares2,899

Combined PnL-$392.12

Oregon — 55%Michigan — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichigan 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Michigan 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Oregonavg 61¢	$990.03	$1.4K	+$397.64	48% 560-611 (1171)
RN1ARB<$100	Oregonavg 64.3¢	$939.46	$913.98	-$25.48	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
└ Oregon leg	Oregonavg 64.3¢	$622.14	$623.72	+$1.58
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 38.8¢	$317.32	$290.27	-$27.05
65 6512395314597884	Oregonavg 60.2¢	$800	$875	+$75	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Oregonavg 61.3¢	$428.33	$506.78	+$78.44	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
BI biying88888CTR	Michiganavg 36¢	$504.72	$308.44	-$196.28	44% 216-270 (486)
CM cm2897CTR	Michiganavg 41.2¢	$455.05	$243.1	-$211.95	49% 1187-1228 (2415)
38 38791873984189	Oregonavg 68¢	$336.43	$237.75	-$8.52	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
DE degenm	Oregonavg 77¢	$95.2	$120.55	+$25.35	39% 9-14 (23)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Michiganavg 39¢	$76.83	$64.03	-$12.8	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
PA Pan9X	Oregonavg 67.2¢	$106.91	$58.6	-$3.84	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
PR primmCTR<$100	Michiganavg 29¢	$29	$47	+$18	60% 1016-678 (1694)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Michiganavg 23.5¢	$22.38	$33.3	+$10.92	38% 1175-1954 (3129)

justaluckydude

Oregon

Invested

$990.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$397.64

Record

48%

560-611 (1171)

RN1ARB<$100

Oregon

Invested

$939.46

Value

$913.98

PnL

-$25.48

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Both legs:

Oregon$622.1464.3¢+$1.58

Michigan$317.3238.8¢-$27.05

6512395314597884

Oregon

Invested

$800

Value

$875

PnL

+$75

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Oregon

Invested

$428.33

Value

$506.78

PnL

+$78.44

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

biying88888CTR

Michigan

Invested

$504.72

Value

$308.44

PnL

-$196.28

Record

44%

216-270 (486)

cm2897CTR

Michigan

Invested

$455.05

Value

$243.1

PnL

-$211.95

Record

49%

1187-1228 (2415)

38791873984189

Oregon

Invested

$336.43

Value

$237.75

PnL

-$8.52

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

degenm

Oregon

Invested

$95.2

Value

$120.55

PnL

+$25.35

Record

39%

9-14 (23)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$76.83

Value

$64.03

PnL

-$12.8

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Pan9X

Oregon

Invested

$106.91

Value

$58.6

PnL

-$3.84

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

primmCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$29

Value

$47

PnL

+$18

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$22.38

Value

$33.3

PnL

+$10.92

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichigan 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Michigan 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.