Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Oregon, while the market favors Michigan (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Oregon (-11.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (71%) · Oregon at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Oregon47¢Michigan53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$27.04

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon47%

Michigan54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,965

Combined PnL-$27.46

Michigan2 traders

Total Value$44.88

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$0.42

Oregon — 71%Michigan — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOregon 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oregon 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Michiganavg 52¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$55.83	57% 3601-2755 (6356)
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$46.92
└ Oregon leg	Oregonavg 46¢	$819.91	$828.82	+$8.91
SN SnakeBallCTR	Oregonavg 47.7¢	$692.94	$676.08	-$16.86	48% 877-965 (1842)
VeryLucky888CTR	Oregonavg 47.9¢	$446.07	$432.84	-$13.23	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
38 38791873984189CTR	Oregonavg 46¢	$179.01	$180.81	+$1.81	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Oregonavg 46¢	$80.5	$81.38	+$0.88	59% 3738-2564 (6302)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Michiganavg 53¢	$25.6	$25.84	+$0.24	49% 625-652 (1277)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Michiganavg 53¢	$18.87	$19.04	+$0.18	55% 256-211 (467)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oregonavg 46.8¢	$7.83	$7.78	-$0.05	52% 1608-1475 (3083)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Michigan

Invested

$2,446.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$55.83

Record

57%

3601-2755 (6356)

Both legs:

Michigan$1,626.5952¢+$46.92

Oregon$819.9146¢+$8.91

SnakeBallCTR

Oregon

Invested

$692.94

Value

$676.08

PnL

-$16.86

Record

48%

877-965 (1842)

VeryLucky888CTR

Oregon

Invested

$446.07

Value

$432.84

PnL

-$13.23

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

38791873984189CTR

Oregon

Invested

$179.01

Value

$180.81

PnL

+$1.81

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

NM-PCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$80.5

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$0.88

Record

59%

3738-2564 (6302)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Michigan

Invested

$25.6

Value

$25.84

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

625-652 (1277)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Michigan

Invested

$18.87

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

256-211 (467)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOregon 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oregon 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.