Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 54.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 80¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 79.5¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares12,364

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares12,921

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 51.7¢	$3.1K	$5.1K	+$2.0K	47% 535-611 (1146)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Overavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	55% 3748-3063 (6811)
PR primm	Underavg 61.6¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$534.55	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$52.03	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$942.9	$1.5K	+$553.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$958.94	$457.17	-$501.77
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$688.59	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VI vibing123	Underavg 63¢	$687.88	$879.14	+$191.26	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 35.6¢	$897.49	$704.42	-$193.07	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.6¢	$662.75	$372.31	-$290.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.5¢	$234.74	$332.11	+$97.37
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.1K	$614.98	-$141.66	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$197.34	$316.62	+$127.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$567.25	$298.35	-$268.9
RN1CTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$1.1K	$604.44	-$502.06	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$390.01	-$579.9	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 38.1¢	$410.58	$350.93	-$59.64	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$130.32	$203.9	+$73.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.1¢	$280.26	$147.04	-$133.22
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$486.3	$193.28	-$293.02	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$294	$117	-$177	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 36.4¢	$166.2	$101.37	-$40.89	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.4¢	$126.46	$69.54	-$53.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$19.01	$31.83	+$12.82
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$68.25	-$103.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 50¢	$28.86	$45.89	+$17.03	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$11.43	$5.44	-$5.99	66% 173-91 (264)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$7.56	$3.6	-$3.96	51% 2230-2185 (4415)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$3,112.56

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Over

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

55%

3748-3063 (6811)

primm

Under

Invested

$1,789.45

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$534.55

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,901.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$52.03

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

Under$942.950.1¢+$553.81

Over$958.9443¢-$501.77

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,147.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$688.59

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$687.88

Value

$879.14

PnL

+$191.26

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$897.49

Value

$704.42

PnL

-$193.07

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Over$662.7535.6¢-$290.45

Under$234.7456.5¢+$97.37

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,073.74

Value

$614.98

PnL

-$141.66

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$197.3449.9¢+$127.23

Over$567.2538¢-$268.9

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,106.5

Value

$604.44

PnL

-$502.06

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,484.62

Value

$390.01

PnL

-$579.9

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$410.58

Value

$350.93

PnL

-$59.64

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Under$130.3251.1¢+$73.58

Over$280.2638.1¢-$133.22

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$486.3

Value

$193.28

PnL

-$293.02

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$294

Value

$117

PnL

-$177

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$166.2

Value

$101.37

PnL

-$40.89

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Over$126.4636.4¢-$53.71

Under$19.0147.8¢+$12.82

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$103.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$28.86

Value

$45.89

PnL

+$17.03

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

biying88888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.43

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$5.99

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.56

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$3.96

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.