Merrimack vs. Monmouth

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Monmouth (55%) · Monmouth at 85¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Merrimack16¢Monmouth84¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Monmouth

Consensus Traders

Monmouth 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$935.58

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 84.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMonmouth at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Monmouth

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Merrimack16%

Monmouth85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Monmouth6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,677

Combined PnL-$917.9

Merrimack5 traders

Total Value$927.88

Total Shares6,109

Combined PnL-$17.68

Monmouth — 55%Merrimack — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Monmouth. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMerrimack 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Monmouth 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Monmouthavg 86¢	$4.3K	$3.5K	-$850.99	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
VE VenusianCTR	Merrimackavg 14¢	$789.68	$789.68	-$0	37% 968-1674 (2642)
PA Pan9X	Monmouthavg 86¢	$294.98	$236.67	-$58.31	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AV averagejoetraders	Monmouthavg 82¢	$205.39	$201.63	-$3.76	56% 760-609 (1369)
NO NotJumpCTR	Merrimackavg 50¢	$105	$87.15	-$17.85	52% 833-779 (1612)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Merrimackavg 15¢	$52.75	$55.18	+$2.43	38% 550-887 (1437)
└ Merrimack leg	Merrimackavg 15¢	$33.75	$31.5	-$2.25
└ Monmouth leg	Monmouthavg 69¢	$19	$23.68	+$4.68
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Merrimackavg 14¢	$48.97	$49.09	+$0.12	36% 950-1657 (2607)
GH ghorrock<$100	Monmouthavg 86¢	$47.36	$38.78	-$4.24	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Monmouthavg 83¢	$10	$9.7	-$0.3	35% 267-486 (753)
PA pauleta23<$100	Monmouthavg 83¢	$10	$9.7	-$0.3	40% 438-655 (1093)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Merrimackavg 14¢	$1.56	$1.56	+$0	37% 977-1669 (2646)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Merrimackavg 17¢	$0.35	$0.4	+$0.05	26% 79-227 (306)

6512395314597884

Monmouth

Invested

$4,308.08

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$850.99

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

VenusianCTR

Merrimack

Invested

$789.68

Value

$789.68

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Pan9X

Monmouth

Invested

$294.98

Value

$236.67

PnL

-$58.31

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

averagejoetraders

Monmouth

Invested

$205.39

Value

$201.63

PnL

-$3.76

Record

56%

760-609 (1369)

NotJumpCTR

Merrimack

Invested

$105

Value

$87.15

PnL

-$17.85

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Merrimack

Invested

$52.75

Value

$55.18

PnL

+$2.43

Record

38%

550-887 (1437)

Both legs:

Merrimack$33.7515¢-$2.25

Monmouth$1969¢+$4.68

LimousinCTR<$100

Merrimack

Invested

$48.97

Value

$49.09

PnL

+$0.12

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

ghorrock<$100

Monmouth

Invested

$47.36

Value

$38.78

PnL

-$4.24

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Monmouth

Invested

$10

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

35%

267-486 (753)

pauleta23<$100

Monmouth

Invested

$10

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

40%

438-655 (1093)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Merrimack

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Merrimack

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

79-227 (306)

Research grade

NeutralMonmouth at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Monmouth

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Monmouth. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMerrimack 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Monmouth 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Monmouth wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.