Maryland vs. Purdue

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue (57%) · Purdue at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7

Maryland36¢Purdue64¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Purdue

Consensus Traders

Purdue 57%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$199.77

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPurdue at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maryland36%

Purdue65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,911

Combined PnL+$210.31

Maryland3 traders

Total Value$514.91

Total Shares1,489

Combined PnL-$10.54

Purdue — 57%Maryland — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Purdueavg 64¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$200.44	54% 18478-15550 (34028)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Purdueavg 64¢	$461.32	$464.92	+$3.6	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
SE sentrioCTR	Marylandavg 36¢	$281.25	$285.16	+$3.91	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Marylandavg 34.1¢	$242.85	$228.36	-$14.49	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
IC ic4cream<$100	Purdueavg 64.7¢	$83.45	$87.72	+$4.27	56% 2788-2199 (4987)
PA Pan9X<$100	Purdueavg 64¢	$32	$34	+$2	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Marylandavg 31¢	$1.35	$1.39	+$0.04	58% 21687-15792 (37479)

HomeRunHazard

Purdue

Invested

$3,207

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$200.44

Record

54%

18478-15550 (34028)

ferrariChampions2026

Purdue

Invested

$461.32

Value

$464.92

PnL

+$3.6

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

sentrioCTR

Maryland

Invested

$281.25

Value

$285.16

PnL

+$3.91

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

FlaznorpCTR

Maryland

Invested

$242.85

Value

$228.36

PnL

-$14.49

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

ic4cream<$100

Purdue

Invested

$83.45

Value

$87.72

PnL

+$4.27

Record

56%

2788-2199 (4987)

Pan9X<$100

Purdue

Invested

$32

Value

$34

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Research grade

NeutralPurdue at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.