Spread: Georgia Southern (-10.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Marshall (40%) · Marshall at 51¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 7

Georgia Southern49¢Marshall51¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marshall

Consensus Traders

Marshall 40%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.2

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 51¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarshall at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marshall

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Southern49%

Marshall51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marshall4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,295

Combined PnL+$225.8

Georgia Southern6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares8,427

Combined PnL-$226

Marshall — 40%Georgia Southern — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Marshall. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarshall 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpGeorgia Southern 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrGeorgia Southern 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGeorgia Southern 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Georgia Southern 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Marshallavg 54.7¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$182.18	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Georgia Southernavg 46¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$151.88	49% 451-468 (919)
38 38791873984189CTR	Georgia Southernavg 46¢	$524.24	$484.91	-$27.75	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
nigiri99	Marshallavg 52.7¢	$421.99	$452	+$36	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
VeryLucky888CTR	Georgia Southernavg 48¢	$480	$430	-$45	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Marshallavg 52.7¢	$80.49	$86.21	+$6.87	48% 405-446 (851)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 43¢	$75.44	$75.44	+$0	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Marshallavg 55.7¢	$55.05	$55.8	+$0.75	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 46¢	$23	$21.5	-$1.25	50% 8436-8484 (16920)
MA MarkramCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.15	-$0.13	67% 2291-1123 (3414)

HomeRunHazard

Marshall

Invested

$3,964.49

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$182.18

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$2,794.58

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$151.88

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

38791873984189CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$524.24

Value

$484.91

PnL

-$27.75

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

nigiri99

Marshall

Invested

$421.99

Value

$452

PnL

+$36

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

VeryLucky888CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$480

Value

$430

PnL

-$45

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Marshall

Invested

$80.49

Value

$86.21

PnL

+$6.87

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

NM-PCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$75.44

Value

$75.44

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Marshall

Invested

$55.05

Value

$55.8

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

RLWGCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$23

Value

$21.5

PnL

-$1.25

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

MarkramCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.13

Record

67%

2291-1123 (3414)

Research grade

NeutralMarshall at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Marshall

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Marshall. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarshall 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpGeorgia Southern 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrGeorgia Southern 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedGeorgia Southern 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Georgia Southern 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marshall wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.