Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 49.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 43¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$123.01

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 42.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,941

Combined PnL+$14.89

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,588

Combined PnL-$137.9

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$62.02	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$119.39
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$57.37
PR primm	Underavg 57¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$13.86	60% 891-599 (1490)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44.1¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$53.5	53% 852-766 (1618)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$80.54	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 43¢	$150.5	$150.5	+$0	30% 193-457 (650)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 43¢	$150.5	$150.5	+$0	59% 3584-2449 (6033)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Underavg 58¢	$75.89	$75.24	-$0.65	53% 66-59 (125)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$42.3	$38.7	-$3.6	66% 1810-941 (2751)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$27.95	$27.95	+$0	43% 119-161 (280)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 52¢	$19.44	$21.12	+$1.68	48% 581-618 (1199)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$11	$10.75	-$0.25	55% 211-171 (382)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,487.34

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$62.02

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Both legs:

Over$1,402.8547¢-$119.39

Under$1,084.4953.7¢+$57.37

primm

Under

Invested

$1,580.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$13.86

Record

60%

891-599 (1490)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,485.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$53.5

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,085.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$80.54

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$150.5

Value

$150.5

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

193-457 (650)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$150.5

Value

$150.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3584-2449 (6033)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Under

Invested

$75.89

Value

$75.24

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

66-59 (125)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.3

Value

$38.7

PnL

-$3.6

Record

66%

1810-941 (2751)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.95

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$19.44

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$1.68

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.